Will SpaceX Get People to Mars Before NASA?

Billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, never one to rest on his laurels, recently laid out the opening move in his long-term quest to land people (himself included) on Mars.

The plan begins with a Dragon capsule, similar to one of the cargo ships now parked at the International Space Station, blasting off for Mars aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket as early as 2018.

The Falcon Heavy, which will have 27 first-stage engines, compared to the nine aboard SpaceX's current Falcon rocket, is scheduled for its first flight before the end of this year. Falcon Heavy will be the most powerful U.S. rocket to fly since NASA's Saturn 5 moon rockets of the 1970s.

SpaceX Targets 2018 for First Mars Mission

NASA, which was an early supporter and primary customer of Musk's Space Exploration Technologies, or SpaceX, was quick to respond to his Mars announcement with a statement of support and the disclosure of an agreement offering technical support.

NASA, after all, has successfully landed spacecraft on Mars seven times.

SpaceX, which has multibillion-dollar contracts with NASA to fly cargo and crew to the space station, won't be getting financial support from NASA for its debut Mars mission, known as Red Dragon.

The prospect of SpaceX's self-financed journey to Mars, one which Musk clearly intends to develop to the point of landing people, casts new light on NASA's own Mars program. The project costs NASA about $4 billion per year and does not yet include development of a habitat for deep-space travel or a vehicle to land and then take off again from the surface.

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For now, the agency is focused on developing the multipurpose deep-space Orion capsule and a heavy-lift rocket, known as the Space Launch System. The capsule and launcher will be tested together for the first time during an unmanned flight around the moon in November 2018. A follow-up test flight with astronauts aboard is targeted for 2023, setting the stage for a human mission to Mars in the mid-2030s.

Which begs the question: Will SpaceX be there first?

"I hope that Space X and NASA - perhaps in a role more ... as advisor instead of NASA as operator - will work together in global harmony to jointly land humans on Mars," astronaut Buzz Aldrin wrote in an email to Discovery News.

Aldrin, one of 12 Americans to walk on the moon, has developed a plan to colonize Mars.

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Bob Zubrin, another long-term advocate for Mars settlement, said he thinks its possible SpaceX may land people before NASA and "probable" that U.S. astronauts will ride as passengers to Mars on SpaceX vehicles.

SpaceX intends to use a new landing technology called supersonic retro-propulsion, which has never been demonstrated on Mars.

"I wouldn't bet against SpaceX eventually landing a Dragon on Mars, but it is 300 miles to send the Dragon to the space station. Mars is 150 million miles away and has a thin atmosphere to deal with. (The) degree of difficulty is way, way higher," Scott Hubbard, a consulting professor at Stanford University and former director of NASA's Ames Research Center in California, wrote in an email to Discovery News.

Hubbard, who also served as NASA's first Mars program director, said several critical technologies must be matured before anyone steps foot on Mars, including high-power solar electric propulsion for cargo and resupply ships and a deep-space habitat and life support systems for crews during the rides to and from Mars, which take between six and nine months each way.

"Humans to Mars is such a complex and difficult undertaking that I expect an successful mission to be collaborative - maybe public private partnership, maybe multinational, maybe all of the above," Hubbard said.

More details of Musk's Mars plan are expected to be unveiled at the International Astronautical Congress in September.

Concept art showing the SpaceX Dragon on its way to Mars.

The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, with the Dragon spacecraft onboard, launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla., on March 1, 2013. The launch was the second SpaceX Commercial Resupply Services mission for NASA. After delivering its bounty of fresh food, supplies and experiments to the orbiting outpost, the Dragon capsule completed its mission when it splashed down off the Baja California coast on March 26, 2013. Here's a photo diary of some of the Dragon's voyage to low-Earth orbit and back.

A view of the approching SpaceX Dragon capsule over a backdrop of Earth before the spacecraft berthed with the station on March 3, 2013.

A view of the approching SpaceX Dragon capsule over a backdrop of Earth before the spacecraft berthed with the station on March 3, 2013.

The space station's robotic arm reaches out to grab the approaching SpaceX Dragon capsule that is loaded with fresh food and other cargo for the orbiting outpost's crew.

A close-up shot of the SpaceX Dragon's berthing point that the space station's robotic arm uses as an attachment to pull the spacecraft in.

The space station's robotic arm guides the SpaceX Dragon capsule during berthing operations on March 3, 2013.

A photo out of a cupola window of the SpaceX Dragon being berthed by the space station's robotic arm shortly after capture on March 3, 2013.

The space station's robotic arm slowly inches the SpaceX Dragon capsule closer to the orbiting outpost's Unity module.

The docked SpaceX Dragon capsule hangs above the Earth shortly after berthing operations.

A view of the SpaceX Dragon capsule attached to the space station's Unity module.

A photo out of a cupola window of the docked SpaceX Dragon and Space Station Remote Manipulator System or Canadarm2 robotic arm.

Inside the International Space Station's Cupola, Expedition 34 Flight Engineer Tom Marshburn assists fellow crew members during capture and docking operations.

Expedition 34 Commander Kevin Ford looks up toward the arriving SpaceX Dragon spacecraft during capture and docking operations.

Inside the International Space Station's Cupola, Expedition 34 Flight Engineer Tom Marshburn assists fellow crew members (out of frame) during capture and docking operations with the SpaceX Dragon spacecraft on March 3, 2013.

Fresh fruit, along with other food and supplies, arrived aboard the unmanned spacecraft on March 3, 2013. Here, Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield eats some of the produce.

From foreground to aft, Expedition 34 Flight Engineers Tom Marshburn of NASA and Roman Romanenko and Evgeny Tarelkin of Roscosmos can't hide their delight over the arrival of fresh food and supplies that were delivered by the SpaceX Dragon.

Expedition 34 Flight Engineer Chris Hadfield of the Canadian Space Agency juggles some tomatoes that were delivered by the SpaceX Dragon capsule on March 3, 2013.

NASA TV screengrab of the space station's robotic arm releasing the SpaceX Dragon capsule before reentry on March 26, 2013.

Artist's impression of the SpaceX Dragon capsule reentering the Earth's atmosphere.

The Dragon's three parachutes are spotted by SpaceX recovery ships shortly before splashdown on March 26, 2013.