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Ben Carson Has Double Digit Lead Over Trump, According to New Iowa Poll
A new poll shows retired neurologist Ben Carson ahead of billionaire Donald J. Trump by 14 percent. The poll, published on Monday by Monmouth University, found that 32 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers support Carson. The same poll showed support for Trump at 18 percent. Carson appears to be gaining a considerable amount of traction among evangelical voters in the state. The Monmouth reported Carson leading among evangelical Christians by 36 percent, twice as much as Trump's 18 percent. The findings echo two other recent polls in Iowa, showing Carson overtaking Trump in the crucial state. The Monmouth poll had a margin of error of five percentage points.
So will Carson definitely take Iowa in the Iowa race? As explained in this video, polls like this should be taken with a hefty grain of salt. For one thing, over 20 percent of Iowa GOP voters say they have not made a definite decision. There are broader issues that can skew polling data, though. By and large, polls are not sampling a representative group. Pollsters rely on landlines, which are becoming less and less common. In addition, people are just less inclined to participate in this kind of research, narrowing the scope even more. Finally, online polls may be the best way to reach the broadest swath of society, but that certainly does not guarantee those respondents will show up at the polls come the election. Bottom line: be skeptical, do some research on your own, and consult as many sources as possible before making your decisions this election.
Special thanks to Jackie Koppell for hosting this edition of TestTube News! Check out her channel Newsy News for a more irreverent take on today's news.
Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey (gallup.com)
"President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are within one percentage point of each other in Gallup's final pre-election survey of likely voters, with Romney holding 49% of the vote, and Obama 48%."
What's the Matter With Polling? (nytimes.com)
"OVER the past two years, election polling has had some spectacular disasters."
The challenges of polling when fewer people are available to be polled (pewresearch.org)
"Around the world, pollsters have had some high-profile flops lately."
Political Polling's Unfavorables Are on the Rise (theatlantic.com)
"Even as election junkies become more focused on opinion data, the quality of that data seems to be getting worse."