Why Can't We Find Aliens? Climate Change Killed Them
We're having a hard time finding extraterrestrial life. Does this mean we're the only ones? Or does it mean that all the aliens are dead?
As we look deeper into our galaxy for signs of extraterrestrial life, we keep drawing a blank. Does this mean life on Earth is unique and we're the only ones out here? Or could it just mean that all the aliens are dead?
Fresh on the heels of the recent news surrounding the increasingly dire climate forecast for our planet, comes a possible warning from the cosmos: climate change in extraterrestrial environments is inevitable and, should life on hypothetically habitable worlds not act as a stabilizer for their environments, it serves as a "sell-by" date for all burgeoning lifeforms.
In new research published in the journal Astrobiology, astronomers of The Australian National University (ANU) pondered this scenario and realized that young habitable planets can become unstable very quickly. What once was a life-giving oasis becomes a hellish hothouse or frozen wasteland very quickly.
"The universe is probably filled with habitable planets, so many scientists think it should be teeming with aliens," said Aditya Chopra, lead author of the paper. "Early life is fragile, so we believe it rarely evolves quickly enough to survive."
"Most early planetary environments are unstable. To produce a habitable planet, life forms need to regulate greenhouse gases such as water and carbon dioxide to keep surface temperatures stable," he said.
Unlike Earth, most worlds will likely not find this balance, ultimately succumbing to being cooked by a runaway greenhouse effect (like Venus) or frozen by a thinning atmosphere (like Mars). Life will often not be fortunate enough to win the race against environmental fluctuations to become a stabilizing factor.
Earth, which already has the stunning fortune to exist at just the right spot around a stable star, spawned life and that life had a role to play in stabilizing its atmosphere as it evolved over that last 4 billion years.
"Life on Earth probably played a leading role in stabilizing the planet's climate," said co-investigator Charley Lineweaver, also from ANU.
And this could be why we're not finding a galaxy filled with alien life - just because there's a habitable world out there, it doesn't mean it's suitable for life for long. It's yet another hurdle against life from gaining a foothold.
"The mystery of why we haven't yet found signs of aliens may have less to do with the likelihood of the origin of life or intelligence and have more to do with the rarity of the rapid emergence of biological regulation of feedback cycles on planetary surfaces," said Chopra.
One of the fundamental reasons for seeking out exoplanets, particularly small rocky worlds in orbit around their stars within their habitable zones, is to find planets that have similarities to Earth. And we're finding plenty of candidates that approximately fit the bill. But just because they possess some "Earth-like" features certainly doesn't mean they're Earth-like. This research underscores the uncertainty.
For decades we've been pondering our place in the universe and tried to theorize why we've uncovered no evidence for extraterrestrial intelligences. With all the stars and planets in our galaxy and all the water and prebiotic chemicals that are known to exist, there must be other intelligent lifeforms. But there's no sign of them. This problem is known as the "Fermi Paradox."
Chopra and Lineweaver suggest their new research provides some answer to this paradox and call it the "Gaian Bottleneck." If life isn't given a chance to stabilize its biosphere, then it's doomed.
Earth was given this opportunity, and life emerged from the Gaian Bottleneck to help form the life-giving oasis we take for granted today. Earth and its complex interplay of feedback cycles created what can be seen as a superorganism, where all life on its biosphere has a role to play in its evolution. (This is known as the "Gaia Hypothesis", a relatively controversial idea formulated by James Lovelock and Lynn Margulis in the 1970s.)
But now we have an intelligent lifeform that emerged as a dominant force, interrupting and exploiting our planet's natural cycles. Humanity has inadvertently created a new bottleneck - let's call it the "Industrial Bottleneck" - by causing irreversible changes to our delicate biosphere. Now, we're seeing rapid impacts on our civilization as the balance in our climate is knocked off-kilter by the inexorable rise of greenhouse gases from industrial processes and energy needs.
Are these bottlenecks common throughout the cosmos? If an extraterrestrial lifeform "makes the grade" and survives the Gaian Bottleneck, does it then face another existential threat from their evolution into a industrial civilization?
For now, this is all speculation, but what's clear from observations of our own planet, is that the mother of all existential self-inflicted bottlenecks is on the horizon and, unless we find a way of reversing the damage we've caused to our environment, it seems we'll quickly become just another lifeform that didn't make the grade.
Source: ANU press release
The prospect of seasonal liquid water flows on the surface of Mars instantly revived discussions about whether the planet most like Earth in the solar system could host present day life. But it’s not the only place where scientists are looking. At a congressional hearing this week, scientists listed their top four candidates for extraterrestrial life in the solar system. Other researchers are scanning radio and optical emissions from distant stars to hunt for technically advanced civilizations. In the future, scientists plan to look for chemical signs of life in the atmospheres of planets circling nearby stars. Here’s a look at the most likely spots for life among Earth’s neighbors.
Photo: The SETI Institute's Allen Telescope Array (ATA) hunts for radio signals from intelligent alien life in our galaxy.
Without hesitation, NASA's chief scientist Ellen Stofan told lawmakers that Mars is her top candidate for finding life beyond Earth. "We now know that Mars was once a water world, much like Earth, with clouds and a water cycle and indeed some running water currently on the surface. For hundreds of millions of years about half the northern hemisphere of Mars had an ocean possibly a mile deep in places," Stofan said. "Life as we know it requires liquid water that has been stable on the surface of a planet for a very long time. That's why Mars is our primary destination in our search for the life in the solar system," she added. NASA's next rover, scheduled to launch in 2020, will be outfitted with instruments to look for ancient microbial life, though Stofan, a geologist by training, believes it will take astronauts on Mars, cracking opening rocks and running experiments, to make the definitive discovery.
Photo: Scientists have found recent evidence of liquid water on the surface of Mars in the dark narrow streaks that cut into cliff walls all around the planet's equator.
The Jupiter moon Europa is roughly the size of Earth's moon, yet it hosts a salty ocean that has twice as much water as Earth's oceans. The Europa sea contacts a rocky core, which presents suitable conditions for life to brew. The moon also has abundant sources of energy. That leaves one big question in the search for life: Does it have organics? A mission targeted for launch in the 2020s will attempt to find organics that have welled up from the sea into cracks on the moon’s icy surface. It also will search for a mysterious plume that may be behind a 2012 Hubble Space Telescope detection of water vapor above Europa’s southern polar region. Scientists also want to know how deeply the ocean is buried beneath Europa's frozen crust. "That will be important for coming up with a strategy to search for life there," Cornell University planetary scientist Jonathan Lunine told the House Committee on Space, Science and Technology. "There's a lot of groundwork that has to be done on Europa ... if there are fresh organics in the cracks, that’s a good place to go," he said.
Photo: Artist's illustration of a plume of water vapor shooting off the icy surface of Jupiter’s ocean-bearing moon Europa.
One of the biggest surprises from NASA’s Cassini mission at Saturn was the discovery of plumes shooting into space from the moon Enceladus, now known to host a global subsurface ocean. "Make a list of the requirements for terrestrial-type life -- liquid water, organics, minerals, energy and chemical gradients and Cassini has found evidence for all of them in the plume," said Cornell University’s Jonathan Lunine. "The most straightforward way to look for life is fly through the plume, which Cassini has done lots of time, with modern instruments that can detect signatures of life," he said.
Photo: Light reflecting off Saturn illuminates the surface of Enceladus and backlights the plume in this April 2013 image.
Saturn's largest moon Titan presents intriguing prospects for life, though it likely would be very different than anything found on Earth. It is the only moon in the solar system with a thick, protective atmosphere. Cassini and its companion Huygens lander revealed a world with methane clouds, rain, gullies, river valleys and methane-ethane seas. "We cannot resist asking whether some biochemically novel form of life might have arisen in this exotic, frigid environment," Cornell University's Jonathan Lunine said. "Titan is a test for the universality of life as an outcome of cosmic evolution." To look for life, Lunine said a spacecraft would likely drop a capsule into a Titan sea so that can float across the surface and make measurements. "We don't know what we're looking for here, so a generalized search for patterns and molecular structures and abundances that indicate deviation from abiotic (non-biological) chemistry is appropriate," he said.
Photo: Scientists assembled this mosaic of near-infrared images of Titan taken by the Saturn-orbiting Cassini spacecraft.
So far, we only know life exists on one planet, Earth, but scientists don't know how it started or even if it had one or more false starts before ultimately taking hold. "Since Earth remains for now the only instance of an inhabited planet, the search for life also requires that we further develop our understanding of life on Earth," NASA's lead scientist Ellen Stofan said. "We know life is tough, tenacious, metabolically diverse and highly adaptable to local environmental conditions," she added. Scientists have discovered microbial life that consumes what would be considered toxic to others and life that can withstand radiation, cold, heat and other extreme conditions. "We do know that life evolved very rapidly here on Earth after conditions stabilized. That's a factor that makes us optimistic that there's life elsewhere in the solar system," Stofan said. Clues about how life started on Earth may be preserved on the moon, which holds the geologic record of the first billion years of Earth. "That's the time that life began on Earth. To understand what was happening geologically, we can do no better than turn to the moon," Cornell University's Jonathan Lunine said. "We really have no laboratory model for how life began on the Earth," he added. "One of the reasons for going out to environments in our solar system where the conditions for life are apparently there and possible is to see whether life actually began, to do the experiment in the field rather than in the laboratory." "It is remarkable that we have found four destinations in our solar system where life may actually exist, or have existed for quite some time in the past. Now is the time to actually go search," he said.
Photo: The far side of the moon, illuminated by the sun, crosses between the Deep Space Climate Observatory and Earth.