According to election polls, the presidential race is neck and neck. According to election polls, our country is split right down the middle. According to election polls, it's anyone's guess who will be the next president of the United States.
But if you follow betting markets like Intrade and Betfair, Obama's win is a better than two in three chance of winning. Both of these websites allow users to bet money on everything from sporting events to Academy Award winners and everything in between, including the presidential election. Players who guess correctly about the outcome of some future event win money. Because a lot of people play and because money is involved, the predictions tend to be accurate.
DNews Nugget: Predict the 2012 Elections
Intrade, which has been around since 2001, began allowing investors to bet on political outcomes in 2004. It gained notoriety when in 2008, it not only predicted that President Obama would win the election, it predicted that he'd receive 364 electoral college votes. He received 365. (To win, a candidate needs 270, by the way.)