In the days since the story broke about the arrest of alleged spy Ryan Fogle, there has been much conjecture and skepticism about the incident. Both Earnest and Moran, veterans of the intelligence community, say there is almost certainly more to the situation than meets the eye.
"That episode was clearly pre-arranged," Earnest says. "It was set up. They had their photographers at the ready, they took him back and photographed on the paraphernalia. It was clearly some kind of a sting operation."
Moran says that, to her, the sloppy spycraft suggests either an elaborate set-up by the FSB -- the Russian internal security agency -- and/or a remarkably incompetent CIA operations officer. "The alleged spycraft involved, the preposterous wig -- it just doesn't ring true to me in terms of how we're trained."
Or it may be possible that Fogle isn't a spy at all, Moran says. "Maybe he's like a diplomat who's a spy wannabe and he's off doing his own little rogue operation."
"The truth is we may never know. The Agency is always very mum in cases like this. Whether the guy works for the CIA or not, they're not going to confirm anything."