"From a computation perspective, there's enough chaos in weather that I don't know if you'll ever be able to predict it months in advance," Klotzbach told FoxNews.com.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Colorado State and others traditionally issue hurricane predictions in late May just prior to the start of the season, and update them in early August, just prior to the historic peak. Twenty years ago, Klotzbach decided to push the envelope, to see how early he could predict the season.
The results weren't good.
In December 2010, the duo predicted 180 total days of tropical cyclone activity; the season actually saw 137. The numbers for 2009 were off as well: 136 days of cyclone activity were predicted, but only 66 cropped up.
"Beyond five days or so, that's where the crystal ball gets a little fuzzy," Chris Vaccaro, a spokesman for NOAA, told FoxNews.com.
"You can predict seasonal trends fairly well months in advance. But the devil's in the details. Which ones will stay over open water and which will hit land?"