Big Data Predicts Super Bowl Outcome: Geeks Win
Whether it’s Nate Silver soothsaying election results or Billy Beane playing sabermetric “Moneyball,” using sophisticated algorithms and big data to predict outcomes — either presidential or sports-related — has stormed pop culture and made unlikely bedfellows out of geeks and jocks alike.
Enter PredictionMachine.com. Striving to be “the most accurate and trusted source for predicting sports outcomes,” the website has already run 50,000 simulations of Sunday’s big game and has the San Francisco 49ers winning 66.9 percent of the time over the Baltimore Ravens with a final score of 28 to 21.
The “Predictalator” was designed by Paul Bessire and, according to his website, is “one of the foremost authorities on mathematically modeling and analyzing” with one heck of record. He’s correctly predicted seven of the last nine Super Bowls (nine of nine against-the-spread), six of the last nine World Series and seven of the last nine NCAA Tournament champions.
“The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today,” the website states. “The technology has the ability to account for all of the statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (home field advantage) and weather in each game.”
With that kind range, the predictions just don’t stop with the score. Here’s what else The Predictalator foresees for Super Bowl XLVII:
The 49ers will rush for 167 yards thanks in part to running back Frank Gore’s 89 yards on 19 carries and quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s 38 yards on six carries. The Ravens will be held to only 98 yards rushing on account of the The Predictalator favoring San Francisco’s defense over Baltimore’s, despite Ray Lewis’s terrifying face mask and alleged deer antler spray abuse.
As for the game’s MVP, that award will go to Kaepernick, who the website calls “not only the physical prototype for the formation and best pistol quarterback in the league, he is the best and most experienced pistol quarterback in the history of football.”
Whether you call up your bookie and place any bets on these predictions is up to you. Personally, I like The Predictalator’s odds, so I’m not gambling against big data.
Credit: Julie Dermansky/Corbis